BACK UP

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains up and all the elements I look at support a flip up in the intermediate term trend.  This past week closed higher than the previous week and also above both the 40 week and 10 week moving average.  The probabilities favor a test of the 148 level, which represents the high made in September  One of the reasons I say that is that the last time the chart looked like this was in late June (see circled bar).  As you can see the market ran much higher from that point.  However, it could be that we might only get another week or two of up side before another potential down leg.  I say that because the longer term charts I look at suggest that this market has made quite a run and the closer we get to the 148 level, the probabilities grow that any sell off may result in a longer term correction.

WHAT I WOULD DO IN 401-K:  I would be 100% in mutual funds but would be quick to exit if the intermediate term trend flips back down.  Have a great weekend everyone.