NICE BOUNCE

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains intact and at first glance of the weekly SPY chart you may be inclined to believe that maybe the intermediate term trend has resumed to the up side.  The week closed very strongly up right after bouncing off the 40 week moving average.  While the price action itself was very bullish there are still two things that I look that are suggesting that this bounce may be nothing more than a brief rally before a resumption of the trend down.  One of those things is the 10 week moving average (cyan line) which is directly above price and often acts as resistance when the market has been declining from a major high.

WHAT I WOULD TO LONG TERM:  I would still be out 100% of mutual funds in my 401-K until I have full confirmation that an intermediate term rally is underway.  Hope you all had a happy Thanksgiving!