NEW BLOG

I've decided to start a new blog called "maxyourretirement.blogspot.com".  I'm doing this mainly due to the fact that an institutional firm has expressed in interest in my work.  They have requested certain information be included that will make the new blog content be quite different.  I believe this will also benefit you.

I have saved your email addresses in the new blog so you'll continue to receive that automatically.  I'll have the first post completed no later than Sunday this weekend.  Have a blessed holiday weekend.

A PICTURE IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term an intermediate term trends are solidly up.  A very strong up week this past week.  For the fourth consecutive week prices have closed above the all time highs made in November 2007.

WHAT I WOULD DO WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  I've mentioned in past weeks that as the market moves higher I would commit more and more funds.  But the market has now moved up four weeks in a row without a pause.  It would be much safer to wait for a pullback to a support level and look for a bounce rather than just jump in now IMHO.  Have a great weekend.

THIS DOESN'T MAKE SENSE

THE TRENDS:  If you needed proof that fundamentals aren't the most important factor in forecasting market trends you need look no further.  Since March 2009 the market has been in an up trend.  A rocky ride along the way but in a general long term up trend.  This is spite of consistently negative economic news.  Below is the SPY Quarterly chart.  As you can see both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.

WHAT I WOULD DO LONG TERM:  The currently developing bar represents the price movement from April - June.  As of May 10 the price is trading just above the bull market highs of 2000 and 2007.  One of two things can happen from here.  IF the latest bar closes on June 30 below the yellow resistance lines, this would signal at minimum a significant correction...and at worst a new long term bear market.  STILL, the market is bullish and as I've stated in past weeks, I slowly commit more money to the market as it proves it can move higher.  But I'll be quick to move 100% to the sidelines if my weekly analysis indicates an intermediate term down trend.  Have a great weekend and bless your Mothers & Wives.

MARCHING ON

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  Last week closed up very strongly (see weekly SPY chart) well above the previous all time highs; but it did so on rather weak volume.  Whenever this happens it sets up the potential for a quick retreat back below all time highs.  So while the price action is very bullish, it was not confirmed by volume.

WHAT I WOULD TO WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  As I've stated in previous updates I would have 50% of my portfolio in the market and only commit more when the market convinces me it's moving higher.  I might commit a little more at this point but certainly not 100% until the volume analysis convinces me that the bulls are fully in control.  Have a great weekend!

BOUNCE BACK

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  This week closed higher than last week but prices remain stuck right around the major highs made in 2000 and 2007.

WHAT I WOULD DO WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  Basically my comments have not changed since last week.  If the market makes a weak daily close below the levels I indicated (see weekly SPY chart), then if the market were to close next Friday below those levels, an intermediate term sell signal would be given.  If this happens, I will update the blog at that time.  Otherwise, look for the next update to be next Saturday.  Enjoy the beautiful spring days ahead!

CAUTION

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up BUT...after closing above the 2000 and 2007 market highs last week (see two green lines on weekly SPY chart), the market closed lower this week.  This is cause for concern because MANY other factors are now in place to indicate a high probability shift in the intermediate term trend to down.  The ONLY trigger left is if next week there is a close below the 10 week moving average (blue line).

WHAT I WOULD DO:  Normally I would follow the system and stay in the market, only exiting IF there was a weekly close below the 10 week MA.  But the market is very overbought on every time frame, is right at levels previously associated with large corrections and ALL of the other indicators are pointing down.  My strategy would be to exit 100% if we have a daily close below the 153.50 level.  This level represents the lowest level price traded this past week and is also below the 10 week MA.  IF this happens, an intermediate term short signal would likely follow and prices could drop to the next levels of support, which is the 146 - 149 level.  IF this happens, I will update the blog that day.  If not, I'll update again next Saturday.  Have a great weekend!

MOVING HIGHER

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  As you can see on the weekly SPY chart, the market not only closed up again, but it made an all time high, rising above the previous high made in 2007.

WHAT I WOULD DO WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  The last several weeks I've pointed out that I would only have 50% of my funds in the market due to the fact that we're at levels where historically very large declines have taken place.  Well, now that we've closed at long term highs I would take that as a sign of strength.  I would slowly commit more to the market, maybe 10 - 15% or so, and gradually get 100% committed as the market moves higher.  The reason I would not go all in just based on this new high is that there is still a decent probability that this move may just be temporary before the market turns back down.  Have a great weekend!