Saturday, May 11, 2013

THIS DOESN'T MAKE SENSE

THE TRENDS:  If you needed proof that fundamentals aren't the most important factor in forecasting market trends you need look no further.  Since March 2009 the market has been in an up trend.  A rocky ride along the way but in a general long term up trend.  This is spite of consistently negative economic news.  Below is the SPY Quarterly chart.  As you can see both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.











WHAT I WOULD DO LONG TERM:  The currently developing bar represents the price movement from April - June.  As of May 10 the price is trading just above the bull market highs of 2000 and 2007.  One of two things can happen from here.  IF the latest bar closes on June 30 below the yellow resistance lines, this would signal at minimum a significant correction...and at worst a new long term bear market.  STILL, the market is bullish and as I've stated in past weeks, I slowly commit more money to the market as it proves it can move higher.  But I'll be quick to move 100% to the sidelines if my weekly analysis indicates an intermediate term down trend.  Have a great weekend and bless your Mothers & Wives.

No comments:

Post a Comment