CAUTION

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up BUT...after closing above the 2000 and 2007 market highs last week (see two green lines on weekly SPY chart), the market closed lower this week.  This is cause for concern because MANY other factors are now in place to indicate a high probability shift in the intermediate term trend to down.  The ONLY trigger left is if next week there is a close below the 10 week moving average (blue line).

WHAT I WOULD DO:  Normally I would follow the system and stay in the market, only exiting IF there was a weekly close below the 10 week MA.  But the market is very overbought on every time frame, is right at levels previously associated with large corrections and ALL of the other indicators are pointing down.  My strategy would be to exit 100% if we have a daily close below the 153.50 level.  This level represents the lowest level price traded this past week and is also below the 10 week MA.  IF this happens, an intermediate term short signal would likely follow and prices could drop to the next levels of support, which is the 146 - 149 level.  IF this happens, I will update the blog that day.  If not, I'll update again next Saturday.  Have a great weekend!