NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  As you can see from this week's SPY chart, the market closed slightly higher but price is stalling right around the major highs made in 2000 and 2007.

WHAT I WOULD DO WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  My stance has not changed from previous weeks. Due to the strength of the market I would have 50% in the market but would exit 100% on an intermediate term trend sell signal.  Have a great weekend.  HE IS RISEN!

SITTING TIGHT

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  However, for the 3rd straight week prices have closed right at/near the previous major bull market highs (see weekly SPY chart).

WHAT I WOULD DO IN LONG TERM ACCOUNT:  Nothing has changed relative to my comments the previous two weeks.  I wouldn't throw any new money at the market and would be very vigilant to exit 100% on the next intermediate sell signal.  I would ONLY get 100% invested again if the market makes a significant move above current levels.  Have a great weekend!

RISKY TIME TO BUY

THE TRENDS:  I could virtually repeat what I said last week.  In a nutshell, both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up BUT price is right at/near the price levels where the last two major bear markets occurred.  As you can see on the weekly SPY chart although this past week closed higher, it did not do so with much conviction. 

WHAT I WOULD DO WITH IRA OR 401-K:  I would be even more vigilant about protecting my profits than I was last week.  I would move more money into cash and only be exposed about 25% to the market.  I would be quick to exit the balance on an intermediate term sell signal.  The reason being that the probabilities are high that the next intermediate term sell would eventually evolve into a long term bear market.  Have a great weekend!

OFF TO THE RACES?

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains up and clearly the intermediate term trend does also.  As you know by now last week moved up very strongly.  HOWEVER, look at the SPY Quarterly chart.  This week closed at 155.44.  The last long term bull market that ended in December 2007 did so at the 157.50 level.  The bull market previous to that ended in March 2000 at the 155.75 level.

WHAT I WOULD DO LONG TERM:  Nothing has changed since last week.  Obviously the market is still very strong but I would be even more vigilant than last week about protecting my profits.  The reason is that any intermediate term correction (weekly chart) could very well translate into a longer term bear trend.  Have a great weekend!

WHAT NEXT?

THE TRENDS:  I could literally repeat what I said last week.  While the long term trend remains up the intermediate term trend has stalled.  This week closed only slightly higher than last week.  Also, as you can see in the image below, the weekly bar is once again gray.  In my opinion all it would take to start a significant intermediate term correction is a weekly close (red bar) beneath the 10 week moving average (cyan line). 

WHAT I WOULD DO LONG TERM:  Because the long term trend remains intact I would keep 50% of my available funds in the market but would not establish any new positions at this time.  I'll also be watching the weekly price action closely over the ensuing weeks.  If an intermediate term down trend is signaled I would move 100% into cash.  Have a great weekend...I'm off ice fishing with my son.  Life is good!