STILL A MIXED BAG

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains up and on a technical basis so does the intermediate term.  However, I'm defining the intermediate term trend as "neutral".  The reason is that half of the indications I look at point to a trend continuation while the other half say "caution".  As you can see from the weekly SPY chart the week closed slightly lower than last week at 141.16.  This is slightly bearish.

WHAT I'M DOING LONG TERM:  As I shared with you last week I took profits on 1/2 of my position last week and moved my stop on the other 1/2 to 136.08, which is the last intermediate term buy signal.  Due to the cloudy intermediate term outlook I am now moving my stop to just below the 138 level, which is just below the 10 week moving average.  If price declines to that level it will in all likelihood signal an intermediate term down trend.  I hope you all have a great holiday weekend.  Fly your flag with pride!

MIXED BAG

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  However, there are some early signs that the intermediate term trend may be in jeopardy.  When looking at the chart notice that price briefly exceeded the high in April at 142 only to close lower at 141.51.  The week also closed lower than last Friday.  This is bearish.  The other indicators that I look at are split as to what may happen next.  Ultimately I'll need to see at least a strong weekly close below the 10 week moving average which is currently at 137.98.

WHAT I'M DOING LONG TERM:  As I mentioned last week I took 1/2 of the funds I've committed to long term investing off the table.  I will keep the other 1/2 in the market until I see more signs of a confirmed intermediate term down trend.  Have a great weekend everyone!

BULLISH BUT VIGILANT

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  As you can see on the Weekly SPY chart the week closed higher than last week and was especially bullish on Friday.  BUT, we need to be vigilant.  Notice the green line drawn at the April high of 142.21 which represents the highest prices have traded this year.  On Friday the market closed at 142.18. 

WHAT I'M DOING WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  When the market reaches such an important resistance level, rather nasty declines can occur if enough indicators agree.  I will be watching these closely next week.  In my own account, I'm taking profits on 1/2 of my position and on the other half I'll move my stop up to breakeven after commissions.  Have a great weekend everyone!

ALMOST THERE

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  This week the market closed higher than last week and well above the 10 week moving average.  This is bullish but there wasn't much "range" during the week which concerns me a bit.  As I've stated the last few weeks, the 142 is the high probability target we're looking for the market to reach.  Today the market closed at 140.84.

WHAT I'M DOING WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  Still in 100% but watching VERY CLOSELY what happens when the market hits the 142 level.  If a confluence of other factors I look at point to a market decline it could be a rather swift one.  Will keep you advised.  Have a great weekend everyone!

SAME OLE SAME OLE

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  As you can see from the SPY Weekly chart, this week opened at about the same level it closed the previous week.  It then declined to "test" the 10 week moving average, only to rebound later in the week to finish strongly.  Not to sound like a broken record, but this is bullish behavior.  The probabilities are very high that the 142 level will be tested on the up side.  The ONLY issue I have with the up trend is that it is moving up VERY slowly.  I'd like to see more conviction as the market moves higher.

WHAT I'M DOING WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  I'm still in 100% but will continue to watch very closely for signs of an intermediate sell signal.  Have a great weekend everyone!