NICE!

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  As you can see in the weekly chart of the SPY, the week started by selling off only to bounce again off the 10 week moving average.  Friday was a particularly strong day which is very bullish.

WHAT I'M DOING WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  Still in 100%.  The 142 level remains a high probability profit objective based on the latest price action.  But I remain vigilant looking for any reversals that may signal an intermediate term shift to the down side.  Have a blessed weekend everyone!

STILL OK

THE TRENDS:  The long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  As you can see from the chart below, although the market sold off on Friday, it closed higher than where it opened on Monday and higher than last Friday's close.  This is slightly bullish.

WHAT I'M DOING IN 401-K:  Still in 100%.  As I mentioned last week however, the conditions exist whereby if the market closes below the 10 week moving average (which isn't far below price), the intermediate trend could easily flip down.  So I'll keep a close eye.  Have a great weekend everyone!

STRONG WEEK

THE TRENDS:  Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain up.  As you can see in the chart below, this week closed above last week.  But even more important is how the prices traded during the week.  Early in the week prices declined, traded slightly below the 10 week moving average, and then rebounded strongly late in the week to trade above where it opened on Monday.  This is considered to be very bullish behavior.

WHAT I'M DOING WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  Since both trends remain up, I'm staying 100 invested.  However, we're not to far away from a point where a confluence of events could flip the intermediate trend down.  So I'm watching the market closely.  Hope you all have a great weekend!

A LITTLE CAUSE FOR CONCERN

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains up.  The intermediate trend also remains up even though the market closed slightly lower than the previous week (see image of Weekly SPY).  As you can see the market closed at 135.49 above the 10 week moving average which is currently at 133.49.  However, we need to be vigilant and watch price action closely at this juncture.  On the left side of the chart notice the area circled in green.  This is the weekly price action in July of 2011.  The price action is very similar to this year.  Early in July 2011 the market broke out above the average only to decline below it decisively the last week of the month.  The market then had a severe correction phase.

WHAT I'M DOING IN 401-K:  I'm staying in because at this juncture the intermediate trend is up.  However, if the market closes again below the 10 week moving average, the probabilities highly favor a more severe correction.  I hope you all had a great holiday and stay cool this weekend!