BACK IN

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains up.  More importantly, on Friday the intermediate term trend flipped back up.  You may remember in past weeks how I talked about how important the 126 - 130 zone was.  If the trend was to re-assert itself to the up side, prices would likely have to stop there.  Not only did prices stop there, but we had a strong weekly close above the 10 week moving average.

WHAT I'M DOING WITH LONG TERM FUNDS:  I am back in 100%.  Last week's price action indicates a high probability that the high of 143 made in late March will be tested.  My ONLY caution at this point is that the 10 week moving average is not yet sloping up.  It is conceivable that after such a strong week we may see some weakness in the short term.  But as long as we don't get a weekly close below the 130 level, the intermediate term trend remains up.  Have a great summer weekend!

NOTHING NEW TO REPORT

THE TRENDS:  As you can see from the chart of the weekly SPY, the market closed lower than it did the previous week.  At the beginning of the week the market rallied above the 10 week moving average only to close below it at the end of the week.  This should prove to you how formidable this average is.  Last summer, after the market declined below this average, it took 11 weeks for the market to rally above it to signal another up leg in the long term bull market.  The long term trend remains up/neutral, but the intermediate term trend remains down.

LONG TERM FUNDS:  I'm on the sidelines until the market breaks decisively above the 10 week moving average.  Have a great weekend everyone!

DITTO

THE TRENDS:  I could literally refer you back to last week's post.  As you can see from the image below, the market closed nearly where it opened for the week and stalled at the 10 week moving average.  As I stated last week, until the market can move strongly above this level, the intermediate term trend remains down.  The long term trend remains bullish to neutral.

SUGGESTION FOR 401-K:  For the reasons stated above I'm remaining 100% on the sidelines until the intermediate term trend flips up.  Have a great weekend everyone.

NOT TIME YET

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend is still neutral.  This week the market closed very strongly above the 130 level, which on it's own was very bullish.  But technically the intermediate trend remains down.  One of the reasons can be seen on the chart below.  Notice the cyan and red line on the chart?  This line is a 10 week moving average.  Now look at the two circled areas on the chart.  These represent the bear markets in the summer of 2010 and summer of 2011.  Notice how a sustained bull trend never got underway until price broke above that line decisively and the line turns cyan.

SUGGESTION FOR 401-K:  I am still out of the market as the intermediate trend has not yet flipped up.  Have a great weekend everyone.

BOMBS AWAY

THE TRENDS:  As you can see from the image below, the market sold off heavily this week compared to last.  It closed below the all important 130 level, which points to a high probability move lower to the 116-120 zone.  The intermediate term trend is decidedly down.  When looking at the monthly chart the long term trend is now neutral.












SUGGESTION FOR 401-K:  There is absolutely NO reason to get back into the market now.  It is conceivable that if next week the market rallies back above the 130 level, that there may be another leg up.  But until that time, I'm staying on the sidelines

Have a great weekend!