NO BIG SURPRISE

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains up.  However, the intermediate term trend remains down.  This, even though this market closed up slightly from last week.  As I mentioned last week, there was a reasonable probability that the market would bounce from the 130 level.  But this bounce occurred on weaker volume and range compared to the last week

SUGGESTION FOR 401-K:  Although the market closed up above the 130 level it did so with weak conviction.  The bottom line is that the intermediate term trend is still down and until it flips up I am staying 100% in cash.

Don't forget to fly your flag this weekend in memory of our veterans and loved ones who have passed.  Have a great holiday weekend!

NO DOUBT

THE TRENDS:  While the long term trend remains up there is no doubt about the intermediate trend.  As expected the market moved decidedly lower and on heavier volume than the previous week (see image).  As you can see the market closed right at/near the high made last October.  The market action should be very interesting in the next several weeks.  It is conceivable that this is the level the market will find support for another leg up.  On the other hand, if the market breaks through this level on strong volume, the next down side target is the low made last November.

SUGGESTION FOR 401-K:  There is NOTHING positive right now to suggest getting back into the market.  I'm 100% in cash.  Have a great weekend everyone.  I'm off to go fishing with my buds!

I'M OUT

THE TRENDS:  On Friday the market gave an intermediate sell signal as the market closed below the 137.50 level that I talked about last week.  IMPORTANT:  It also did so on higher volume than the previous week.  This suggests a high probability that over the next several weeks the market will continue to decline, potentially to just below the 130 level, which represents the October, 2011 high.

WHAT I'M DOING IN MY 401K:  I am moving all of my money into cash.  On occasion the kind of action we saw last week will just be a "head fake" where the market turns around and heads back up.  If this happens, I'll get back in but the probabilities suggest a further move down.  Better safe than sorry.

Have a great weekend everyone!

LOOK OUT BELOW?

THE TRENDS:  The intermediate and long term trends remain up.  Although there are definite signs that the intermediate trend may be in peril.  As you can see this past week was very much a down week, this right after a strong week the week before.  The bottom line is that if the market continues to fall below the 135.75 level the intermediate term trend will flip down.  If this happens this indicates a high probability that the market will continue to fall to at least the 130 level, which is near the high made last October.

SUGGESTION FOR 401K:  I will be monitoring the market each day next week.  If it falls below the 135.75 level I'm moving all my long term funds to the sidelines.  I will update the blog if this happens so watch your mailbox.  Have a great weekend.