SO FAR SO GOOD

THE TRENDS:  As you can see from the attached chart of the weekly SPY the market had a very strong week.  Although the 136 level was tested early in the week the market turned around and finished very strong on Friday.  This is very bullish.

SUGGESTION FOR 401-K:  I am fully invested again but although this last week was a very strong week, some of the other indicators I look at to confirm the price action still point to some uncertainty.  I will feel a lot better if the market continues to rally above the 142 level.  I will continue to keep an eye on the charts daily and update the blog if I feel the intermediate term trend has shifted down. 

HOLD ON

THE TRENDS:  The long term trend remains up as well as the intermediate term trend.  As you can see from the weekly SPY chart the week closed slightly higher at 137.95.  More significantly it closed above the high of 137.18 made last May after closing below that level the previous week.

SUGGESTION FOR 401K:  For the time being I will remain invested unless the market makes a rapid decline below the 136 area (green dotted line).  This would mean a high probability move lower which would signal an intermediate term sell signal.  If this occurs I will update the blog so you may want to check your email each day.  Have a great weekend everyone.

WHAT TIME IS IT?

THE TRENDS: As you can see from the attached chart the market declined for the second consecutive week, closing at 137.14 which is just below the significant resistance level representing the high made last May at 137.18. The correction over the last two weeks has been 3.5%. As I mentioned last week, after such an extended up move it is not abnormal to see these types of corrections in a healthy bull market. Both the intermediate and long term trends remain up.



SUGGESTION FOR 401K: I should have mentioned last week that those who had been fully invested in the stock market since the last signal at 115.71 may want to move some of their money into cash since the probability was high that over the next several weeks we may see a market correction. I still believe that we may be in for potentially another couple of down weeks before another potential leg up. So you may still consider moving some of your money into cash. Of course, I will keep an eye out for signs that this correction may actually turn into an intermediate term down trend in which case you would definitely want to move the majority of your money into cash.

Have a great weekend!

NO TIME TO PANIC

THE TRENDS: As you can see from the attached chart of the SPY this past week closed slightly lower than the previous week. This is normal market behavior, especially after the strong rally mode the market has been in since December. My expectation is that this past week will begin a string of weeks where the market declines before the market may bounce and resume it's up trend. If we do see a "normal" pullback, I would expect this bounce to occur somewhere in the 134-137 area. But it could go as low as 132.



SUGGESTION FOR 401-K: I'll reiterate what I've mentioned the past few weeks...if you've been out of the market 100% up until now, I would not commit a large percentage of overall capital at this point. If we get the expected decline I will watch the areas outlined above closely for signs of a bounce that would give a safer time to commit more funds to the market.

Have a great Easter weekend. He is risen!