DEAD IN IT'S TRACKS

LONG TERM TREND: As you can see from this week's S&P chart, this week closed down significantly from the previous week. This indicates a high probability move lower for the weeks to come. The 108 -110 area represents the zone most likely where prices will pause before deciding to move back higher or break lower.



SUGGESTION FOR 401-K: As long as prices fail to rise and hold above the 40 week moving average (now at 126.66) the long term trend remains neutral to slightly bearish. So my long term money remains on the sidelines for now. I hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. I remain open to any questions or suggestions.

CORRECTION

Thanks to my good friend Hubbard for pointing out a rather significant error I made in this week's post. I forgot to connect to my data feed before pulling up the chart. Consequently it was not updated with the last 5 days worth of data. Major guffaw on my part. I"ll have to put a sticky note up on my screen to remind me. Below is the correct chart which shows how weak last week was compared to the previous week. As you can see once again the 40 week moving average provided significant resistance. Nothing much changes as far as my commentary. We still need to see a strong weekly bar close above the moving average in order to change the long term outlook to bullish. Have a blessed Thanksgiving everyone.

THE WAITING GAME

LONG TERM TREND: As you can see from the attached chart of the weekly SPY, this week the market closed slightly higher than last week but STILL below the 40 week moving average. We are truly at a crossroads right now. The prudent thing to do is to wait and see which direction the market takes from here. If it breaks above and holds above the 40 week moving average the probabilities favor a resumption of the long term up trend. If it breaks lower then the probabilities favor a transition from a long term bull market to a long term bear market.



SUGGESTION FOR 401-K: Until the market shows me that it wants to go up my long term money remains on the sidelines. Be blessed and have a great weekend.

FORMIDABLE RESISTANCE

LONG TERM TREND: The attached weekly chart of the SPY, which is an exchange traded fund which mirrors the movement of the S&P 500, continues to show the market is having trouble exceeding the 40 week moving average. For the third straight week the market has closed right around the average. Until it rises above this average with some conviction IMHO there is no reason to believe that the most recent leg up is anything more than a bearish correction.



SUGGESTION FOR 401-K: For the reasons stated above I still have my longer term funds in cash. Have a great weekend and please don't hesitate to ask if you have any questions.

STUCK AT THE 40 MA

LONG TERM TREND: After closing just above the 40 week moving average last week price sold off early in the week and then recovered but never closed above the average. This week also closed below last week (see attached image).



SUGGESTION FOR 401-K: Basically a repeat of last week. It is still unclear which way prices want to go over the long term. I will watch the market on a daily basis next week and will update the blog if I see evidence that heavy professional/institutional buying will drive the market higher above this average. Have a great weekend.